Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Sean McCorkle
89%
11%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
81"
23
Age
Δ 12y
34
34-13
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Struve: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
McCorkle: 4 sig / 1 TD
Stefan Struve
Sean McCorkle
28
Sig strikes landed
34
52
Sig strikes attempted
126
38
Total strikes landed
32
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
-0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
10%
KO/TKO
75%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W1
Sean McCorkle
18-7
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—