Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Wesley Little
Jacob Noe
84%
16%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wesley Little
Jacob Noe
33
Sig strikes landed
33
92
Sig strikes attempted
92
44
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Wesley Little
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Blue corner
Jacob Noe
"Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Age
30