Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Wes Shivers
Goldman Butler
82%
18%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wes Shivers
Goldman Butler
41
Sig strikes landed
38
94
Sig strikes attempted
95
57
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
3.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Wes Shivers
0-0
Career record
Height
80"
Age
34
Blue corner
Goldman Butler
0-0
Career record