Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caros Fodor
Derek Getzel
82%
18%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Caros Fodor
Derek Getzel
40
Sig strikes landed
41
100
Sig strikes attempted
100
54
Total strikes landed
43
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
163s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Caros Fodor
"The Future"
12-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 9
—
Blue corner
Derek Getzel
"The Pretzel"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"