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Lightweight

Sako Chivitchian vs Kyle Watson

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sako Chivitchian
Kyle Watson
69% 31%
Why
27
Age
Δ 5y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Chivitchian: 36 sig / 0 TD · Watson: 72 sig / 0 TD
Sako Chivitchian
Kyle Watson
35
Sig strikes landed
35
71
Sig strikes attempted
71
44
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sako Chivitchian

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Kyle Watson

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31