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Bantamweight

Will Campuzano vs Nick Pace

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Will Campuzano
Nick Pace
64% 36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
Δ 1y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Campuzano: 16 sig / 1 TD · Pace: 18 sig / 7 TD
Will Campuzano
Nick Pace
37
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
72
53
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
197s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Will Campuzano

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Nick Pace

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24