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Featherweight

Ian Loveland vs Tyler Toner

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ian Loveland
Tyler Toner
58% 42%
Why
27
Age
Δ 0y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Loveland: 44 sig / 0 TD · Toner: 21 sig / 0 TD
Ian Loveland
Tyler Toner
40
Sig strikes landed
36
82
Sig strikes attempted
77
53
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ian Loveland

"The Barn Owl"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Tyler Toner

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28