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Lightweight

Cody McKenzie vs Aaron Wilkinson

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Cody McKenzie
Aaron Wilkinson
61% 39%
Why
23
Age
Δ 1y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McKenzie: 0 sig / 1 TD · Wilkinson: 0 sig / 1 TD
Cody McKenzie
Aaron Wilkinson
40
Sig strikes landed
36
80
Sig strikes attempted
74
55
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Cody McKenzie

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
Blue corner

Aaron Wilkinson

"The Daywalker"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24