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Nam Phan vs Leonard Garcia

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Nam Phan
Leonard Garcia
63% 37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
28
Age
Δ 4y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Phan: 102 sig / 0 TD · Garcia: 64 sig / 2 TD
Nam Phan
Leonard Garcia
39
Sig strikes landed
42
82
Sig strikes attempted
94
58
Total strikes landed
58
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Nam Phan

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Leonard Garcia

"Bad Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31