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Featherweight

Fredson Paixao vs Pablo Garza

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Fredson Paixao
Pablo Garza
41% 59%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 7"
73"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Paixao: 1 sig / 0 TD · Garza: 3 sig / 0 TD
Fredson Paixao
Pablo Garza
31
Sig strikes landed
40
66
Sig strikes attempted
81
49
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
165s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Fredson Paixao

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Pablo Garza

"The Scarecrow"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27