Main
Light Heavyweight
Stephan Bonnar vs Igor Pokrajac
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Stephan Bonnar
Igor Pokrajac
38%
62%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
16-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
29-13
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bonnar: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Pokrajac: 23 sig / 0 TD
Stephan Bonnar
Igor Pokrajac
29
Sig strikes landed
33
67
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
168s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stephan Bonnar
"The American Psycho"
16-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W1
Igor Pokrajac
"The Duke"
29-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—