Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lucas Lopes
Cortez Coleman
83%
17%
Why
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lucas Lopes
Cortez Coleman
45
Sig strikes landed
40
111
Sig strikes attempted
105
62
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lucas Lopes
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
31
Blue corner
Cortez Coleman
"Hollywood"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
29