Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tom Aaron
Matt Ricehouse
61%
39%
Why
32
Age
Δ 9y
24
6-3
Career record
Δ 21 pp
7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tom Aaron
Matt Ricehouse
41
Sig strikes landed
42
96
Sig strikes attempted
102
51
Total strikes landed
50
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tom Aaron
6-3
Career record
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Ricehouse
7-1
Career record
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—