Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Terrell Brown
Patrick Cummins
88%
12%
Why
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Terrell Brown
Patrick Cummins
44
Sig strikes landed
39
94
Sig strikes attempted
93
55
Total strikes landed
54
3.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.5
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
213s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Terrell Brown
0-0
Career record
Age
28
Blue corner
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30