Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Lawrence
Max Martyniouk
78%
22%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Justin Lawrence
Max Martyniouk
44
Sig strikes landed
40
102
Sig strikes attempted
100
62
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
3.7
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Justin Lawrence
"The American Kidd"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
Max Martyniouk
"Payne"
0-0
Career record