Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Lindland
Robbie Lawler
44%
56%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
41
Age
Δ 12y
29
23-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
30-17
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lindland: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Lawler: 8 sig / 0 TD
Matt Lindland
Robbie Lawler
37
Sig strikes landed
31
72
Sig strikes attempted
84
49
Total strikes landed
47
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
95s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
75%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Lindland
"The Law"
23-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—
Blue corner
L1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
W
Strikeforce - Miami
—