Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Scott Smith
Paul Daley
15%
85%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Daley: 17 sig / 0 TD
Scott Smith
Paul Daley
21
Sig strikes landed
38
61
Sig strikes attempted
83
39
Total strikes landed
53
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.6
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
175s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Scott Smith
"Hands of Steel"
18-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28