Back to Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Babalu
Light Heavyweight

Dan Henderson vs Renato Sobral

Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Babalu ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dan Henderson
Renato Sobral
29% 71%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
40
Age
Δ 5y
35
32-16
Career record
Δ 11 pp
38-11
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Henderson: 13 sig / 0 TD · Sobral: 3 sig / 0 TD
Dan Henderson
Renato Sobral
31
Sig strikes landed
44
91
Sig strikes attempted
154
42
Total strikes landed
66
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Dan Henderson

"Hendo"
32-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
W1

Renato Sobral

"Babalu"
38-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—