Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ricardo Lamas
Iuri Alcantara
30%
70%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lamas: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Alcantara: 11 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Lamas
Iuri Alcantara
26
Sig strikes landed
21
64
Sig strikes attempted
52
43
Total strikes landed
32
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
21-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30