Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Renan Barao
14%
86%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
18-8
Career record
Δ 10 pp
35-9
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cariaso: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Barao: 2 sig / 0 TD
Chris Cariaso
Renan Barao
34
Sig strikes landed
41
79
Sig strikes attempted
104
49
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.8
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
115s
Control time
240s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
Blue corner
W1
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—