Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
Will Kerr
56%
44%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
18-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Castillo: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Kerr: 3 sig / 0 TD
Danny Castillo
Will Kerr
18
Sig strikes landed
15
33
Sig strikes attempted
30
29
Total strikes landed
36
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
210s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
60%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
L
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W1
Will Kerr
10-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—