Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Zhang Tiequan
Danny Downes
62%
38%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
32
Age
Δ 8y
25
16-4
Career record
Δ 13 pp
8-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tiequan: 12 sig / 4 TD ·
Downes: 31 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Tiequan
Danny Downes
31
Sig strikes landed
18
77
Sig strikes attempted
58
56
Total strikes landed
31
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
270s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zhang Tiequan
"The Wolf"
16-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan
—
Blue corner
L1
Danny Downes
8-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—