Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Shane Roller
Jamie Varner
37%
63%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
11-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-12-1
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Roller: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
Varner: 5 sig / 0 TD
Shane Roller
Jamie Varner
27
Sig strikes landed
30
69
Sig strikes attempted
67
53
Total strikes landed
49
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
295s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shane Roller
11-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
Blue corner
L1
Jamie Varner
21-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 3
L
WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan
—
D
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—