Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ivan Menjivar
Brad Pickett
65%
35%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Menjivar: 84 sig / 0 TD ·
Pickett: 69 sig / 3 TD
Ivan Menjivar
Brad Pickett
41
Sig strikes landed
37
95
Sig strikes attempted
96
56
Total strikes landed
61
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ivan Menjivar
"The Pride of El Salvador"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L1
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25-15
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—