Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Chris Horodecki
55%
45%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 4y
23
37-17
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-7-1
W1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cerrone: 23 sig / 2 TD ·
Horodecki: 27 sig / 1 TD
Donald Cerrone
Chris Horodecki
42
Sig strikes landed
42
102
Sig strikes attempted
107
55
Total strikes landed
63
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
70s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan
—
L
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
Blue corner
W2
Chris Horodecki
"The Polish Hammer"
22-7-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan
—
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—