Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dominick Cruz
Scott Jorgensen
88%
12%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
25-4
Career record
Δ 29 pp
16-12
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Cruz: 117 sig / 6 TD ·
Jorgensen: 42 sig / 2 TD
Dominick Cruz
Scott Jorgensen
58
Sig strikes landed
44
150
Sig strikes attempted
132
78
Total strikes landed
58
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.0
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W3
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
16-12
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—