Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Wagnney Fabiano
82%
18%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
26
Age
Δ 9y
35
28-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-4
L1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Benavidez: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Fabiano: 6 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Wagnney Fabiano
15
Sig strikes landed
22
86
Sig strikes attempted
61
43
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
4.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
191s
Control time
369s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joseph Benavidez
28-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W2
Wagnney Fabiano
"The Silencer"
17-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—