Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demetrious Johnson
Damacio Page
89%
11%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Johnson: 25 sig / 4 TD ·
Page: 12 sig / 4 TD
Demetrious Johnson
Damacio Page
46
Sig strikes landed
29
83
Sig strikes attempted
78
74
Total strikes landed
45
2.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
253s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
28-3-1
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
WEC 51: Aldo vs. Gamburyan
—
L
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
Blue corner
Damacio Page
"The Angel of Death"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28