Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Francisco Rivera
79%
21%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
22
Age
Δ 7y
29
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Koch: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Rivera: 1 sig / 0 TD
Erik Koch
Francisco Rivera
32
Sig strikes landed
26
66
Sig strikes attempted
46
47
Total strikes landed
38
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
197s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
17-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
L
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29