Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Javier Vazquez
71%
29%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
26
Age
Δ 8y
33
19-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-5
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mendes: 30 sig / 3 TD ·
Vazquez: 6 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Javier Vazquez
11
Sig strikes landed
8
28
Sig strikes attempted
21
34
Total strikes landed
21
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
217s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
59%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W2
Javier Vazquez
"Showtime"
17-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—