Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Clint Godfrey
Michael McDonald
38%
62%
Why
28
Age
Δ 8y
20
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Godfrey: 3 sig / 1 TD ·
McDonald: 7 sig / 0 TD
Clint Godfrey
Michael McDonald
18
Sig strikes landed
38
48
Sig strikes attempted
68
37
Total strikes landed
52
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
199s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Clint Godfrey
13-4
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20