Back to WEC 52: Faber vs. Mizugaki
Lightweight

Zachary Micklewright vs Dustin Poirier

WEC 52: Faber vs. Mizugaki ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Zachary Micklewright
Dustin Poirier
28% 72%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 12y
22
15-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
30-11
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Micklewright: 6 sig / 0 TD · Poirier: 38 sig / 0 TD
Zachary Micklewright
Dustin Poirier
28
Sig strikes landed
33
71
Sig strikes attempted
76
47
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
149s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Zachary Micklewright

15-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
Blue corner
L1

Dustin Poirier

"The Diamond"
30-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—