Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Mackens Semerzier
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
31-15
Career record
Δ 6 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Swanson: 83 sig / 4 TD ·
Semerzier: 65 sig / 3 TD
Cub Swanson
Mackens Semerzier
36
Sig strikes landed
26
71
Sig strikes attempted
71
52
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.80
Knockdowns
0.10
107s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
Blue corner
L2
Mackens Semerzier
"Da Menace"
8-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez
—
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—