Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
LC Davis
63%
37%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
28-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
23-9
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Assuncao: 47 sig / 4 TD ·
Davis: 18 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
LC Davis
23
Sig strikes landed
27
81
Sig strikes attempted
68
42
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
L1
LC Davis
23-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
WEC 49: Varner vs. Shalorus
—
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—