Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Takeya Mizugaki
80%
20%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
35-12
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-11-2
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Faber: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Mizugaki: 7 sig / 0 TD
Urijah Faber
Takeya Mizugaki
27
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
83
43
Total strikes landed
56
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
221s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
35-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber
—