Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Paul Kelly
TJ O'Brien
48%
52%
Why
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Kelly: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
O'Brien: 32 sig / 1 TD
Paul Kelly
TJ O'Brien
33
Sig strikes landed
38
64
Sig strikes attempted
77
57
Total strikes landed
55
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
5.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
249s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paul Kelly
14-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
TJ O'Brien
"The Spider"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24