Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tyson Griffin
Nik Lentz
21%
79%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
27
Age
Δ 0y
26
16-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
31-12-2
L2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Griffin: 31 sig / 8 TD ·
Lentz: 34 sig / 4 TD
Tyson Griffin
Nik Lentz
18
Sig strikes landed
29
43
Sig strikes attempted
47
44
Total strikes landed
60
4.3
Takedowns landed
1.9
6.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
226s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tyson Griffin
16-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W2
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 3
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—