Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mike Lullo
Edson Barboza
37%
63%
Why
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lullo: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Barboza: 43 sig / 2 TD
Mike Lullo
Edson Barboza
29
Sig strikes landed
41
63
Sig strikes attempted
83
41
Total strikes landed
60
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
156s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mike Lullo
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25