Prelims1
Welterweight
Matt Brown vs Brian Foster
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
·Palace of Auburn Hills
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Brian Foster
29%
71%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
26-20
Career record
Δ 17 pp
28-10
L2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Brown: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Foster: 25 sig / 3 TD
Matt Brown
Brian Foster
22
Sig strikes landed
21
46
Sig strikes attempted
44
37
Total strikes landed
38
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
81s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W1
Brian Foster
"The Foster Boy"
28-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—