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George Sotiropoulos vs Joe Lauzon

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida ·Palace of Auburn Hills

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
George Sotiropoulos
Joe Lauzon
38% 62%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
15-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
29-16
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sotiropoulos: 19 sig / 3 TD · Lauzon: 16 sig / 0 TD
George Sotiropoulos
Joe Lauzon
28
Sig strikes landed
32
75
Sig strikes attempted
76
51
Total strikes landed
46
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
186s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

George Sotiropoulos

15-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
W UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Blue corner
W1

Joe Lauzon

29-16
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
L UFC 108: Evans vs Silva