Prelims1
Middleweight
Aaron Simpson vs Mark Munoz
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
·Palace of Auburn Hills
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Aaron Simpson
Mark Munoz
47%
53%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
36
Age
Δ 4y
33
12-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Simpson: 43 sig / 5 TD ·
Munoz: 76 sig / 1 TD
Aaron Simpson
Mark Munoz
26
Sig strikes landed
29
59
Sig strikes attempted
71
45
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
12-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—