Main
Light Heavyweight
Phil Davis vs Tim Boetsch
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
·Palace of Auburn Hills
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Davis
Tim Boetsch
80%
20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
18-4
Career record
Δ 19 pp
22-13
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Davis: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Boetsch: 7 sig / 0 TD
Phil Davis
Tim Boetsch
47
Sig strikes landed
39
104
Sig strikes attempted
82
70
Total strikes landed
62
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
224s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—