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Main Middleweight

Gerald Harris vs Maiquel Falcao

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida ·Palace of Auburn Hills
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Gerald Harris
Maiquel Falcao
35% 65%
Why
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
W3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Harris: 8 sig / 2 TD · Falcao: 25 sig / 1 TD
Gerald Harris
Maiquel Falcao
27
Sig strikes landed
23
68
Sig strikes attempted
55
45
Total strikes landed
31
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Gerald Harris

24-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
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W UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
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W UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
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Blue corner

Maiquel Falcao

"Big Rig"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30