Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Hughes
BJ Penn
97%
3%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
46-9
Career record
Δ 35 pp
16-15-2
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hughes: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Penn: 7 sig / 0 TD
Matt Hughes
BJ Penn
58
Sig strikes landed
41
131
Sig strikes attempted
125
62
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
67s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Matt Hughes
46-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
L2
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—