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Quinton Jackson vs Lyoto Machida

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida ·Palace of Auburn Hills
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Quinton Jackson
Lyoto Machida
78% 22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
37-13
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-9
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Jackson: 16 sig / 1 TD · Machida: 33 sig / 1 TD
Quinton Jackson
Lyoto Machida
18
Sig strikes landed
23
42
Sig strikes attempted
33
30
Total strikes landed
31
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
176s
Control time
311s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
37%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Quinton Jackson

"Rampage"
37-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
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Blue corner
L1

Lyoto Machida

"The Dragon"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—