Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dennis Siver
Andre Winner
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
24-11
Career record
Δ 9 pp
21-12-2
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Siver: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Winner: 13 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Siver
Andre Winner
50
Sig strikes landed
58
129
Sig strikes attempted
151
66
Total strikes landed
68
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dennis Siver
24-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L1
Andre Winner
21-12-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—