Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Amir Sadollah
Peter Sobotta
27%
73%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
6-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-8-1
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sadollah: 90 sig / 0 TD ·
Sobotta: 34 sig / 0 TD
Amir Sadollah
Peter Sobotta
41
Sig strikes landed
36
80
Sig strikes attempted
83
74
Total strikes landed
75
0.7
Takedowns landed
3.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
7.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
37s
Control time
353s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Amir Sadollah
6-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Peter Sobotta
17-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—