Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nate Marquardt
Yushin Okami
35%
65%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
36-19-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
35-12
W1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Marquardt: 21 sig / 3 TD ·
Okami: 25 sig / 1 TD
Nate Marquardt
Yushin Okami
22
Sig strikes landed
30
58
Sig strikes attempted
67
33
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
107s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
36-19-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W2
Yushin Okami
"Thunder"
35-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—