Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Billy Evangelista
Waachiim Spiritwolf
94%
6%
Why
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Billy Evangelista
Waachiim Spiritwolf
51
Sig strikes landed
41
105
Sig strikes attempted
96
73
Total strikes landed
58
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
196s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Billy Evangelista
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Waachiim Spiritwolf
"Native Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
35