Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lavar Johnson
Virgil Zwicker
74%
26%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 8"
74"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Johnson: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Zwicker: 19 sig / 0 TD
Lavar Johnson
Virgil Zwicker
55
Sig strikes landed
41
131
Sig strikes attempted
114
77
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
199s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
19-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—
Blue corner
Virgil Zwicker
"RezDog"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Age
28